Probabilities-based decision making.

There are two kinds of thinking in the world: Binary and non-binary.

I’ve met many people who think in black and white, either something will happen, or it will never happen. Either something is unfalteringly true, or earth shatteringly false.

I don’t think this way at all.

Nearly every thought that I have is a probability of some sort. It’s not as if I directly calculate the probablities, but I weigh them out, look at the weight of the downsides of being wrong to each, then calculate what I should do next in a quick amount of time. I “feel” the probabilities of each as a result, my family can attest, I’m good at games like “Liar’s Dice.”

If you’re in the business of convincing people, it may be worth taking some time to uncover just how the person you are trying to convince thinks. If they are of the black and white variety, you won’t be able to change their minds over just about anything that they’ve already decided in the past. So you’ll need to make the conversation about something they have never decided about.

If the audience is of the probability variety, giving them the data and ideas that change the weightings of their probabilities around is what you’re looking for.

There is always room to better understand others. This is just one thought on that.